If Race Comes Down to Omaha, Poll Shows Biden Has an Edge

Nebraska’s Second Congressional District could play a decisive role in a very close election.

The New York Times - Published Sept. 28, 2020 - Updated Oct. 4, 2020

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that do not distribute their electoral votes entirely to the popular-vote winner. Both states award two electoral votes to the candidate that wins the state, and one vote to the winner of each congressional district. President Obama won NE-02 in 2008 while losing the state, and President Trump won Maine’s 2nd District and lost the state in 2016 in an inverse situation. There are plausible electoral maps—for example, taking the 2016 outcome and giving Biden Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, but not Pennsylvania—where the entire presidential election comes down to the result in NE-02. That means there’s huge importance attached to one congressional district with 439,000 registered voters.

This graph clearly illustrates DPI’s effectiveness in ‘moving the needle’ with persuadable voters in NE-2. In mid August, NE-2 leaned GOP (1-2pts), by early September, it was a Toss-Up. Today, Biden leads in most polls by double digits.

Target & Focus

Misery Index

Persuadable Voters in NE-02 Who Care About and are Motivated by Trump’s Handling of COVID

Who Are the Target Persuadables?

Intend to Vote in 2020
Believe that the Trump Administration Has Not Been Effective in Addressing Covid
Indicate that Their Opinion of Trump has Stayed the Same Despite COVID Response